Map from Caspian Report illustrating a new “iron curtain” in the making.
I took some notes listening to this conversation, not accurate notes, just some key ideas I caught while listening:
- Feb 24, 2022: first day of invasion of Ukraine. We are at day 6, date of the recording (I am writing this March 5, 2022, would be day 10).
- Ukrainians are not Russians. Kiev has a longer history than Moscow. The Tsarist empire absorbed the Ukrainian territory, but was always a different people
- In Putin’s fantasy, Ukraine is part of Russia. And Ukrainian would be thankful and “throw flowers on Russian tanks, but they are throwing Molotov cocktails”.
- Kiev have already fought against the rise of authoritarian regimes in Ukraine.
- Russia political system is the concentration of power in the hands of a few. Most Russian people do not want war.
- Russia is rich in resources, but all the power and money is sucked at the top. Most Russians are being ruled at the top.
- This is a typical story of the Emperor who feels he doesn’t have enough.
- Putin has enough power to conquer Ukraine. But He has already lost the war because Ukrainians will never give up, because Ukraine is a nation. But eventually Russia will lose Ukraine, because it cannot hold it forever. Like Americans or Russians in Afghanistan.
- The only thing that Putin is succeeding is planting seeds of hatred for generations, and that will be his main legacy.
- Putin could stop the war and declare success of the annexation of Crimea.
- If this war continues it will hurt the whole world. In EU, the military budgets in the last 50 years have been 3%. In comparison the global average has been 6%. Except a few outliers like the USA, this era of peace has enabled unprecedented human progress, because what we don’t spend on war, we can spend of education, culture, science, health, investing in other countries. In a single day Germany went from. 1.5% to 3%. I’m not against it. Germany, as the leader of Europe must be equipped to play this role. A German today with a weapon, is not a Nazi. He/she is defending Europe and liberal democracy. As Germany does that, all the other countries will do that.
- All the resources that should go to fight Climate change are now going to go toward fighting war. Education, health, science, culture budget will all shrink down.
- So even if you live in Australia, or Brazil, you will feel the shockwaves of this war. These past 50 years have been an era of peace.
- Steven Pinker did not invite us to complacency, rather to treasure the peace we have.
- The tragedy is that this war is the work of mostly one person.
- Nuclear war is a Freudian return of the repressed. In less than a week, nuclear warfare is on the table again. So far Nuclear weapons have operated as a deterrent- but now they could be used in active conflict.
- We are reaping the fruits of the neglect of international institutions. It is collapsing now. We need to repair our global institutions.
- There was no immediate threat against Russia. Putin created this crisis. To re-establish an empire vision, denying the very existence of Ukraine as a country.
- USA invaded Iraq and that was certainly unfair. Kenya told Russia “our countries borders are the product of a colonial power. But our borders are sacred because if we start fighting over borders - there would be no end to wars”
- This is war between superpowers: Russia and NATO. If Germany doubles its military budget, it will spread all around the world and that’s a tragedy.
- This could be the beginning of a European Manhattan project to reduce its dependency to oil and Gas - which is Russia main source of influence. That would be the best way to undermine Putin long term war machine. Oil and gas facilitate dictatorship
- The Ukrainian President has shown admirable conduct. His family is in danger. He made a huge personal contribution.
- Sanctions isolate Russia that is much weaker than the Soviet Union was. The Russian people do not want the war. The Oligarch live internationally, they don’t like the sanctions. They don’t want the war.
- It is scary to see what Putin has done in Syria, he might be ready to do the same in Ukraine. That’s why we need to stop this war immediately.
- What is happening in Israel? Most Israeli support Ukraine. Many Israelis come from former the USSR, but now people get specific and deny being “from Russia” and would say they are from one specific region which is no longer contemporary Russia.
This seven months old video, long before the invasion started, best describes why Russia is attacking this particular front.
To build a balanced view of the world now, it is important to try to see the reaction of Russia and Putin from their perspective and interests. The historian Mearsheimer seems to have a solid reading of history for why it is -in part- NATO’s aggressive expansion that caused the crisis, never mind what the people in the “buffer countries” feel.
Russian journalist living in the USA Vladimir Pozner will go as far as declaring that it is the USA that “made Vladimir Poutine” - in the same way that some would say that Bin Laden was manufactured by the USA…
You may vehemently disagree, yet I think it’s always useful to understand the people you may be in disagreement with, and identify valuable arguments in their rhetoric as well.
You might wonder “why are the Russian people letting this happen?”, “why do they comply with the orders of Putin and send their children on the battlefield?”. We never get exposed to the psyche of the Russian people in the west. I know this is an incredibly long documentary (over 2hrs) of Adam Curtis, but I find these 6 minutes incredibly helpful to understand the intangible morphing of the psyche of the West and the East:
If you can find the time, I highly recommend to watch the whole documentary: https://youtu.be/thLgkQBFTPw
You absolutely must understand that the people in Russia are told a completely different story about what is happening in Ukraine and what motivates the different actors:
If you want to ponder the global geopolitical implications with a prolonged war in Ukraine, this recent Caspian report is absolutely amazing for its clarity despite its density:
I hate the bear bad news, but this WW3 map made 76 days ago (2021, Dec 21): feels more real than ever.
Copy-pasting from Reddit:
“This is my take on a full-scale WW3. My biggest beef with other "scenarios" is that they include countries that have no business going to war - this is not Medieval Europe - countries don't invade each other for no reason, there has to be major political or economic benefit. Basically, the media is referring to a group of "anti-western" countries as the "Authoritarian Powers", and this map revolves around that.
Russia invades Ukraine and the Baltics, NATO gets dragged in, followed by the Scandinavian countries after the Kremlin violates their airspace. I don't anticipate them making offensive attacks, just protecting their territory against Authoritarian forces.
China invades Taiwan and lets North Korea take a swing at the South, just to add extra chaos and divert Western forces. Vietnam gets dragged in after disputes about fishing trawlers and merchant vessels turn deadly. Fearing their economies and sovereignty would be China's next target, several other Southeast Asian countries join the fight. And India gets dragged in because of politics.
Iran attacks American forces in the Middle East and funds terrorist operations in Palestine. Saudi Arabia and Israel form an unlikely alliance to get rid of Tehran. Egypt joins the fray after one of their naval vessels is sunk by a trigger-happy Israeli pilot.
I anticipate that the Western forces will win in all 3 theaters, China will invade Taiwan but ultimately be slaughtered under a hail of anti-ship missiles and torpedoes. The war on the Korean Peninsula will result in the complete destruction of both countries, and create one of the biggest humanitarian crisis' in world history. Russia will invade Ukraine and the Baltics only to get stopped near Kiev and Warsaw (casualties will be incredibly high on both sides). And in the Middle East, Iran gets its ass handed to them by modern technology, but even after Tehran is overthrown, it quickly descends into a rogue warlord state.”
As Umair Haque puts it: “we are the beginning of stage two of a three phase in the development of a World War three”. See
The re-election of Trump (Nov 5, 2024) as a repeat “useful idiot” would increase the risk of WW3 - I feel strongly that Russia will work very hard on trying to make it happen.
If you, or your loved ones live in any of these “buffer countries”, or possible “flashpoint zones” I am very sorry, this must be a very scary read for you. I really wish for peace, but it’s important to be ready with the possibility of war.